CB·pick 4
Drafted by CLE , GM John Dorsey · Ohio St.
2018 · round 1
Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, CB grouping.
Jets, 2022. Followed by Devon Witherspoon at #5 (Seahawks, 2023). Top-5 corners are once-a-generation: Mike Haynes #5 (Patriots, 1976), Deion Sanders (Falcons, 1989), Jalen Ramsey #5 (Jaguars, 2016), Denzel Ward #4 (Browns, 2018). The 2022 draft produced both Gardner and Stingley Jr. (#3) on the same night, then Witherspoon a year later , the run reset a ceiling the position rarely tests.
Trained on every pick through 2017, the model gave a cornerback at #4 a 8.8% chance in 2018.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 10.6% · 2027 model: 9.8%