DE · pick 16, First DE at #16 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, DE grouping. (1972)

DE·pick 16

FIRST DE IN OUR WINDOW AT #16

Herb Orvis

Drafted by DET · Colorado

1972 · round unknown

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, DE grouping.

DEs drafted at #16 in NFL history

most recent: Brian Burns (CAR, 2019)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1971, the model gave a defensive end at #16 a 8.3% chance in 1972.

Defensive end at #16, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 15.1% · 2027 model: 9.0%

Surrounding picks · 1972 draft

#11QBJerry TaggeGB
#12SCraig ClemonsCHI
#13RBFranco HarrisPIT
#14QBJohn ReavesPHI
#15SClarence EllisATL
#17CBEldridge SmallNYG
#18SThom DardenCLE
#19WRTerry BeasleySF
#20LBMike TaylorNYJ
#21WRMike SianiLV

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 9 picks

2019Brian BurnsCAR , GM Marty Hurney · Florida St.
2012Quinton CoplesNYJ , GM Mike Tannenbaum · North Carolina
2011Ryan KerriganWAS , GM Bruce Allen · Purdue
2010Derrick MorganTEN , GM Mike Reinfeldt · Georgia Tech
1999Jevon KearseTEN , GM Floyd Reese · Florida
1996Duane ClemonsMIN , GM Frank Gilliam · California
1995Hugh DouglasNYJ , GM Steve Gutman / Pat Kirwan · Central State (OH)
1988Eric KumerowMIA , GM Don Shula · Ohio St.
1987John BosaMIA , GM Don Shula · Boston Col.

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