DE · pick 40, First DE at #40 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, DE grouping. (1978)

DE·pick 40

FIRST DE IN OUR WINDOW AT #40

Al Baker

Drafted by DET · Colorado State

1978 · round unknown

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, DE grouping.

DEs drafted at #40 in NFL history

most recent: R Mason Thomas (KC, 2026)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1977, the model gave a defensive end at #40 a 7.8% chance in 1978.

Defensive end at #40, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 11.1% · 2027 model: 10.2%

Surrounding picks · 1978 draft

#35CBRay GriffinCIN
#36LBKeith ButlerSEA
#37CBOdis McKinneyNYG
#38DEScott HutchinsonBUF
#39STJohnny EvansCLE
#41OTMilton HardawayLAC
#42LBJohn BarefieldARI
#43LBSteve StewartATL
#44OGBrett MoritzTB
#45RBDave TurnerCIN

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 6 picks

2026R Mason ThomasKC · Oklahoma
2022Boye MafeSEA , GM John Schneider · Minnesota
2013Tank CarradineSF , GM Trent Baalke · Florida St.
1999Tony BryantLV , GM Al Davis era · Florida St.
1993Michael StrahanNYG , GM George Young · Texas Southern
1991Shane CurryIND , GM Jim Irsay/staff · Miami (FL)

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