Colts, 2018. The highest pure guard taken since John Hannah went #4 to the Patriots in 1973. The OG column had one more top-5 entry , Bill Fralic at #2 in 1985 , and otherwise nothing above pick 7 for the entire post-Hannah era. Nelson is the ceiling test, and so far no one else has cleared it. The position is still treated as round-2 value.
How rare was this draftigami?
Trained on every pick through 1985, the model gave a offensive guard at #6 a 5.6% chance in 1986.
Offensive guard at #6, year by year
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 9.3% · 2027 model: 8.7%
Surrounding picks · 1986 draft
#1RBBo JacksonTB , GM Phil Krueger
#2DTTony CasillasATL , GM Ken Herock
#3QBJim EverettTEN , GM Ladd Herzeg
#4DEJon HandIND , GM Jim Irsay/staff
#5LBAnthony BellARI , GM Bill Bidwill
#7OGBrian JozwiakKC , GM Jim Schaaf
#8DELeslie O'NealLAC , GM Steve Ortmayer
#9OGJohn RienstraPIT , GM Dick Haley
#10RBKeith ByarsPHI , GM Harry Gamble
#11LBJoe KellyCIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks
2023Paris JohnsonARI , GM Monti Ossenfort · Ohio St.
2018Quenton NelsonIND , GM Chris Ballard · Notre Dame