OG·pick 96
Drafted by ARI · Georgia
1978 · round unknown
Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, OG grouping.
Picks 96–104 are usually round-3 compensatory picks awarded to teams that lost free agents , a post-1994 invention. Pre-94 these were just regular round-3 / round-4 slots, no comp formula attached. Either era, the back of round 3 is where teams cash in on offensive linemen who slipped on day two: value, depth, future starters.
Trained on every pick through 1977, the model gave a offensive guard at #96 a 6.9% chance in 1978.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 14.2% · 2027 model: 12.9%