QB · pick 10, First QB at #10 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping. (2006)

QB·pick 10

FIRST QB IN OUR WINDOW AT #10

Matt Leinart

Drafted by ARI , GM Rod Graves · USC

2006 · round 1

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping.

QBs drafted at #10 in NFL history

most recent: J.J. McCarthy (MIN, 2024)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2005, the model gave a quarterback at #10 a 4.6% chance in 2006.

Quarterback at #10, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 10.3% · 2027 model: 9.9%

Surrounding picks · 2006 draft

#5LBA.J. HawkGB , GM Ted Thompson
#6TEVernon DavisSF , GM Scot McCloughan
#7SMichael HuffLV , GM Al Davis era
#8SDonte WhitnerBUF , GM Marv Levy
#9LBErnie SimsDET , GM Matt Millen
#11QBJay CutlerDEN , GM Mike Shanahan
#12DTHaloti NgataBAL , GM Ozzie Newsome
#13DEKamerion WimbleyCLE , GM Phil Savage
#14DTBrodrick BunkleyPHI , GM Tom Heckert
#15CBTye HillLAR , GM Jay Zygmunt

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2024J.J. McCarthyMIN , GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah · Michigan
2018Josh RosenARI , GM Steve Keim · UCLA
2017Patrick MahomesKC , GM John Dorsey · Texas Tech
2011Blaine GabbertJAX , GM Gene Smith · Missouri

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