QB · pick 103, First QB at #103 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping. (2006)

QB·pick 103

FIRST QB IN OUR WINDOW AT #103

Brad Smith

Drafted by NYJ , GM Mike Tannenbaum · Missouri

2006 · round 4

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping.

QBs drafted at #103 in NFL history

most recent: Bryce Petty (NYJ, 2015)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2005, the model gave a quarterback at #103 a 3.8% chance in 2006.

Quarterback at #103, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 5.3% · 2027 model: 3.8%

Surrounding picks · 2006 draft

#98TEOwen DanielsHOU , GM Rick Smith
#99OGMax Jean-GillesPHI , GM Tom Heckert
#100WRMichael RobinsonSF , GM Scot McCloughan
#101SDarnell BingLV , GM Al Davis era
#102SCalvin LowryTEN , GM Floyd Reese
#104WRCory RodgersGB , GM Ted Thompson
#105SKo SimpsonBUF , GM Marv Levy
#106RBGarrett MillsNE , GM Bill Belichick
#107DTGabe WatsonARI , GM Rod Graves
#108OTJahri EvansNO , GM Mickey Loomis

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2015Bryce PettyNYJ , GM Mike Maccagnan · Baylor
2007Isaiah StanbackDAL , GM Jerry Jones · Washington

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