QB · pick 12, First QB at #12 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping. (1986)

QB·pick 12

FIRST QB IN OUR WINDOW AT #12

Chuck Long

Drafted by DET , GM Russ Thomas · Iowa

1986 · round 1

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping.

QBs drafted at #12 in NFL history

most recent: Bo Nix (DEN, 2024)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1985, the model gave a quarterback at #12 a 5.6% chance in 1986.

Quarterback at #12, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 8.9% · 2027 model: 8.1%

Surrounding picks · 1986 draft

#7OGBrian JozwiakKC , GM Jim Schaaf
#8DELeslie O'NealLAC , GM Steve Ortmayer
#9OGJohn RienstraPIT , GM Dick Haley
#10RBKeith ByarsPHI , GM Harry Gamble
#11LBJoe KellyCIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#13OTJames FitzPatrickLAC , GM Steve Ortmayer
#14DEGerald RobinsonMIN , GM Mike Lynn
#15RBJohn WilliamsSEA , GM Mike McCormack
#16RBRonnie HarmonBUF , GM Bill Polian
#17LBTim GreenATL , GM Ken Herock

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2024Bo NixDEN , GM George Paton · Oregon
2017Deshaun WatsonHOU , GM Rick Smith · Clemson
2011Christian PonderMIN , GM Rick Spielman · Florida St.
1999Cade McNownCHI , GM Mark Hatley · UCLA

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