QB · pick 199, First QB at #199 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping. (1994)

QB·pick 199

FIRST QB IN OUR WINDOW AT #199

Steve Matthews

Drafted by KC , GM Carl Peterson · Memphis

1994 · round 7

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping.

QBs drafted at #199 in NFL history

most recent: Luke Falk (TEN, 2018)

Editor's note

Tom Brady

Patriots, 2000. Sixth round. The most famous draft slot in football history. Every year's #199 gets the 'next Brady?' headline; every year's answer is no.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1993, the model gave a quarterback at #199 a 4.1% chance in 1994.

Quarterback at #199, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 6.2% · 2027 model: 4.4%

Surrounding picks · 1994 draft

#194LBBarron WorthamTEN , GM Floyd Reese
#195DERamondo StallingsCIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#196DELance TeichelmanIND , GM Bill Tobin
#197QBGus FrerotteWAS , GM Charley Casserly
#198QBJay WalkerNE , GM Bill Parcells
#200OGJim PyneTB , GM Phil Krueger
#201RBJamal AndersonATL , GM Ken Herock
#202TECarlester CrumplerSEA , GM Tom Flores
#203OTAndre HewittCLE , GM Bill Belichick
#204RBFrank HarveyARI , GM Larry Wilson

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 2 picks

2018Luke FalkTEN , GM Jon Robinson · Washington St.
2000Tom BradyNE , GM Bill Belichick · Michigan

→ see this cell on the full chart