QB · pick 22, First QB at #22 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping. (2003)

QB·pick 22

FIRST QB IN OUR WINDOW AT #22

Rex Grossman

Drafted by CHI , GM Jerry Angelo · Florida

2003 · round 1

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, QB grouping.

QBs drafted at #22 in NFL history

most recent: Johnny Manziel (CLE, 2014)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2002, the model gave a quarterback at #22 a 3.2% chance in 2003.

Quarterback at #22, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 7.5% · 2027 model: 5.3%

Surrounding picks · 2003 draft

#17WRBryant JohnsonARI , GM Rod Graves
#18DECalvin PaceARI , GM Rod Graves
#19QBKyle BollerBAL , GM Ozzie Newsome
#20OTGeorge FosterDEN , GM Mike Shanahan
#21CJeff FaineCLE , GM Butch Davis
#23RBWillis McGaheeBUF , GM Tom Donahoe
#24TEDallas ClarkIND , GM Bill Polian
#25DTWilliam JosephNYG , GM Ernie Accorsi
#26OTKwame HarrisSF , GM Terry Donahue
#27RBLarry JohnsonKC , GM Carl Peterson

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 4 picks

2014Johnny ManzielCLE , GM Ray Farmer · Texas A&M
2012Brandon WeedenCLE , GM Tom Heckert · Oklahoma St.
2007Brady QuinnCLE , GM Phil Savage · Notre Dame
2004J.P. LosmanBUF , GM Tom Donahoe · Tulane

→ see this cell on the full chart