Modern teams won't draft a running back early in round 1 anymore , but the column wasn't always like this. RB-at-1 happened seven times from 1969 to 1995: O.J. Simpson, Ricky Bell, Earl Campbell, Billy Sims, George Rogers, Bo Jackson, Ki-Jana Carter. Now the position lives in the back half of round 1: Saquon at 26 (2018), Josh Jacobs at 24 (2019), Najee at 24 (2021). Bijan at 8 (2023) the exception that proves the rule.
How rare was this draftigami?
No rarity score , the model compares each pick to its predictions for earlier seasons, and drafts from 1967–1969 sit before that runway is long enough.
Running back at #24, year by year
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 17.9% · 2027 model: 5.0%
Surrounding picks · 1969 draft
#19CBRoger WehrliARI
#20RBRon JohnsonCLE
#21TEBob KleinLAR
#22DTArt ThomsLV
#23CBJim MarsalisKC
#25WREddie HintonIND
#26OTDave FoleyNYJ
#27RBBill EnyartBUF
#28LBErnie CallowayPHI
#29RBPaul GipsonATL
Drafted at this same coordinate later · 10 picks
2021Najee HarrisPIT , GM Kevin Colbert · Alabama
2019Josh JacobsLV , GM Mike Mayock · Alabama
2008Chris JohnsonTEN , GM Mike Reinfeldt · East Carolina
2004Steven JacksonLAR , GM Charley Armey · Oregon St.
1990Rodney HamptonNYG , GM George Young · Georgia
1988Craig HeywardNO , GM Jim Finks · Pittsburgh
1987Rod BernstineLAC , GM Steve Ortmayer · Texas A&M