S · pick 16, First S at #16 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, S grouping. (2003)

S·pick 16

FIRST S IN OUR WINDOW AT #16

Troy Polamalu

Drafted by PIT , GM Kevin Colbert · USC

2003 · round 1

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, S grouping.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2002, the model gave a safety at #16 a 7.3% chance in 2003.

Safety at #16, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 9.2% · 2027 model: 4.8%

Surrounding picks · 2003 draft

#11CBMarcus TrufantSEA , GM Mike Holmgren
#12DTJimmy KennedyLAR , GM Charley Armey
#13DETy WarrenNE , GM Bill Belichick
#14DEMichael HaynesCHI , GM Jerry Angelo
#15DEJerome McDouglePHI , GM Andy Reid
#17WRBryant JohnsonARI , GM Rod Graves
#18DECalvin PaceARI , GM Rod Graves
#19QBKyle BollerBAL , GM Ozzie Newsome
#20OTGeorge FosterDEN , GM Mike Shanahan
#21CJeff FaineCLE , GM Butch Davis

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

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