S · pick 204, First S at #204 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, S grouping. (2016)

S·pick 204

FIRST S IN OUR WINDOW AT #204

Jordan Lucas

Drafted by MIA , GM Chris Grier · Penn St.

2016 · round 6

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, S grouping.

safeties drafted at #204 in NFL history

most recent: Theo Jackson (TEN, 2022)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2015, the model gave a safety at #204 a 9.0% chance in 2016.

Safety at #204, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 9.4% · 2027 model: 6.2%

Surrounding picks · 2016 draft

#199WRCody CoreCIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#200OTKyle MurphyGB , GM Ted Thompson
#201QBBrandon AllenJAX , GM David Caldwell
#202DTAnthony ZettelDET , GM Bob Quinn
#203DEDadi NicolasKC , GM John Dorsey
#205CBHarlan MillerARI , GM Steve Keim
#206WRMike ThomasLAR , GM Les Snead
#207QBJeff DriskelSF , GM Trent Baalke
#208LBKamu Grugier-HillNE , GM Bill Belichick
#209CBMaurice CanadyBAL , GM Ozzie Newsome

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2022Theo JacksonTEN , GM Jon Robinson · Tennessee

→ see this cell on the full chart