S · pick 38, First S at #38 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, S grouping. (1993)

S·pick 38

FIRST S IN OUR WINDOW AT #38

Roger Harper

Drafted by ATL , GM Ken Herock · Ohio St.

1993 · round 2

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, S grouping.

safeties drafted at #38 in NFL history

most recent: T.J. Ward (CLE, 2010)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1992, the model gave a safety at #38 a 7.1% chance in 1993.

Safety at #38, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 10.7% · 2027 model: 4.9%

Surrounding picks · 1993 draft

#33CBRyan McNeilDET , GM Chuck Schmidt
#34LBDemetrious DuBoseTB , GM Phil Krueger
#35DTCarl SimpsonCHI , GM Bill Tobin
#36DEColeman RudolphNYJ , GM Dick Steinberg
#37TETony McGeeCIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#39TETroy DraytonLAR , GM John Shaw
#40DEMichael StrahanNYG , GM George Young
#41RBNatrone MeansLAC , GM Bobby Beathard
#42DEDan FootmanCLE , GM Bill Belichick
#43RBGlyn MilburnDEN , GM John Beake

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

2010T.J. WardCLE , GM Tom Heckert · Oregon

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