S·pick 5
Drafted by CIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin · Oklahoma
1988 · round 1
Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, S grouping.
Chiefs, 2010. The highest a safety had gone since Kenny Easley #4 (Seahawks, 1981). Top-10 safeties came back into vogue briefly (Earl Thomas #14, 2010; Jamal Adams #6, 2017; Minkah Fitzpatrick #11, 2018) , then teams remembered safety is the easiest defensive position to find late.
Trained on every pick through 1987, the model gave a safety at #5 a 3.9% chance in 1988.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 8.7% · 2027 model: 5.0%