ST · pick 154, First ST at #154 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, ST grouping. (1990)

ST·pick 154

FIRST ST IN OUR WINDOW AT #154

John Nies

Drafted by BUF , GM Bill Polian · Arizona

1990 · round 6

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, ST grouping.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1989, the model gave a specialist at #154 a 3.3% chance in 1990.

Specialist at #154, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 4.2% · 2027 model: 2.1%

Surrounding picks · 1990 draft

#149RBMarcus WilsonLV , GM Al Davis
#150CBDon OdegardCIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#151CBSean VanhorseMIA , GM Don Shula
#152DTTom SimsKC , GM Carl Peterson
#153WRTony JonesTEN , GM Mike Holovak
#155WRRonald HeardPIT , GM Dick Haley
#156QBMike BuckNO , GM Jim Finks
#157CBRandy HilliardCLE , GM Ernie Accorsi
#158LBJames WilliamsNO , GM Jim Finks
#159LBBryce PaupGB , GM Tom Braatz

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

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