Andy Martin | almart.in

NFL DRAFTIGAMI

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ST·pick 169

FIRST ST IN OUR WINDOW AT #169

Efrén Herrera

Drafted by DET · UCLA

1974 · round unknown

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, ST grouping.

2
STs drafted at #169 in NFL history
most recent: Neil Rackers (CIN, 2000)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 1973, the model gave a specialist at #169 a 2.5% chance in 1974.

Specialist at #169, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

19801990200020102020 0%4.3% 1974: 2.5%

Peak: 4.3% · 2027 model: 2.6%

Surrounding picks · 1974 draft

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 1 pick

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