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NFL DRAFTIGAMI

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ST·pick 239

FIRST ST IN OUR WINDOW AT #239

Paul Ernster

Drafted by DEN , GM Mike Shanahan · Northern Arizona

2005 · round 7

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, ST grouping.

4
STs drafted at #239 in NFL history
most recent: Tommy Doman (BUF, 2026)

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2004, the model gave a specialist at #239 a 2.5% chance in 2005.

Specialist at #239, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

19801990200020102020 0%5.2% 2005: 2.5%

Peak: 5.2% · 2027 model: 4.9%

Surrounding picks · 2005 draft

Drafted at this same coordinate later · 3 picks

→ see this cell on the full chart