TE · pick 4, First TE at #4 in the Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, TE grouping. (2021)

TE·pick 4

FIRST TE IN OUR WINDOW AT #4

Kyle Pitts

Drafted by ATL , GM Terry Fontenot · Florida

2021 · round 1

Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, TE grouping.

Editor's note

Kyle Pitts and the TE ceiling

Falcons, 2021. The highest TE has gone since Riley Odoms went #5 to Denver in 1972. Pitts was supposed to break the ceiling , instead he reset the conversation about whether TE can ever be a top-5 pick at all. Cell #4 of the TE column has one occupant in 60 drafts.

How rare was this draftigami?

Trained on every pick through 2020, the model gave a tight end at #4 a 2.0% chance in 2021.

Tight end at #4, year by year

Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.

Peak: 5.7% · 2027 model: 2.2%

Surrounding picks · 2021 draft

#1QBTrevor LawrenceJAX , GM Trent Baalke
#2QBZach WilsonNYJ , GM Joe Douglas
#3QBTrey LanceSF , GM John Lynch
#5WRJa'Marr ChaseCIN , GM Mike Brown / Duke Tobin
#6WRJaylen WaddleMIA , GM Chris Grier
#7OGPenei SewellDET , GM Brad Holmes
#8CBJaycee HornCAR , GM Scott Fitterer
#9CBPatrick Surtain IIDEN , GM George Paton

Drafted at this same coordinate later

Nobody else has been drafted as this position at this pick number.

→ see this cell on the full chart