WR·pick 1
Drafted by NE , GM Patrick Sullivan · Nebraska
1984 · round 1
Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, WR grouping.
Only two WRs have ever gone #1 overall: Irving Fryar (Patriots, 1984) and Keyshawn Johnson (Jets, 1996) , and nobody since. With Chase (#5, 2021), Harrison Jr. (#4, 2024), and Burden / McMillan-tier prospects in the pipeline, the next one feels closer than it has in 30 years.
Trained on every pick through 1983, the model gave a wide receiver at #1 a 5.1% chance in 1984.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 6.2% · 2027 model: 1.8%