Antonio Brown
Steelers, 2010. Pick 199 was Brady, pick 196 was Terrell Davis, pick 86 was a sixth-round Central Michigan receiver who became the best WR of his decade. Then everything else.
WR·pick 86
Drafted by BUF , GM Bill Polian · Kutztown (PA)
1985 · round 4
Common Draft since 1967, rounds 1-7, WR grouping.
Steelers, 2010. Pick 199 was Brady, pick 196 was Terrell Davis, pick 86 was a sixth-round Central Michigan receiver who became the best WR of his decade. Then everything else.
Trained on every pick through 1984, the model gave a wide receiver at #86 a 9.7% chance in 1985.
Each year's estimate uses only that year's draft and the years before it , no peeking ahead. The line smooths across neighboring picks and seasons so a single oddball draft doesn't dominate. The shaded band is the model's 90% uncertainty range.
Peak: 12.1% · 2027 model: 12.1%